President Trump, who is ahead of action, seems to have lost a lot of credibility in the second period than in the first period. When he tried to negotiate with North Korea in the first period, he had a calm president and a wise staff. That is not the case at all now. On the other hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is keeping calm as if nothing happened, will be looking coyly until the U.S. loses its power like Mao Zedong, who studied a lot of military techniques during the Chinese classics. Countries bound by religion or ideology cannot benefit world peace. Neither Iran nor Israel is. The U.S. needs a more planned and sober approach. It doesn't matter who did well or wrong. The world should be peaceful. Artificial intelligence is used to grounds and objections because it has a lot of knowledge.
【English Version】 Discussion Summary
1. Wars Were Prevalent Even During the Cold War
The Cold War era (1947–1991) was far from peaceful. The Korean War, Vietnam War, Middle East conflicts, and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan all took place during this period. The impression of 'no war' refers mainly to the absence of direct conflict between major powers. Reasons why today seems more war-prone:
Real-time exposure of conflicts via social media and 24/7 news
Power vacuum created after the collapse of Cold War deterrence structures
Transitional period toward a multipolar US-China-Russia order (historically, transitions breed conflict)
Nuclear paradox: nuclear war is impossible, but conventional wars have become bolder
2. The US-Iran War and Trump's Strategy
The war began in February 2026 when the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran. Assessment of Trump's conduct of the war:
Issued and reversed ultimatums three times — lack of strategic consistency
Offered multiple justifications: stopping nuclear program, protecting protesters, controlling the Strait of Hormuz
Despite promises of a quick end, signaled the possibility of a prolonged conflict
On April 8, 2026, a 2-week ceasefire was brokered through Pakistani mediation
Trump's approach follows a 'maximum pressure then negotiate' pattern. Military action was planned, but the exit strategy remained unclear.
3. Religious States and World Peace
Analysis of the impact of religiously-based states such as Iran and Israel on world peace:
Religion tends to narrow perspectives and make compromise more difficult
The Israel-Palestine conflict is compounded by the entanglement of religious holy sites
However, the 20th century's worst atrocities occurred in secular states (Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, Maoist China)
Core danger: any belief system becomes dangerous when absolutized and fused with political power
Contrary to the expectation that globalization would reduce religious and ethnic conflict, it has instead triggered identity crises that intensify religious cohesion — a paradoxical backlash
4. Xi Jinping's Strategic Silence
Why Xi Jinping remains quiet amid the US-Iran war, and what strategic calculus underlies this:
While the US is tied down in the Middle East, China quietly expands influence over Taiwan and the South China Sea
A weakened Iran increases its dependence on China — advantageous for Beijing
Simultaneous US-China trade war creates a 'dual exhaustion' dynamic for the US
Sun Tzu principle: 'Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting' (不戰而勝)
Trump's short-term urgency vs. Xi Jinping's long-term patience
The more noise Trump makes, the more quietly Xi Jinping lays his strategic groundwork. This can be compared to the contrast between Xiang Yu (Trump) and Liu Bang (Xi) in the Chu-Han war. The real contest will be decided not on the battlefield in the Middle East, but in the aftermath.
— 토론 종료 / End of Discussion —
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