North Korea's human resources development / Becker

Economist Gerry Stanley Becker, who received the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics, advocated the theory of human capital and said that countries without resources should develop their economies using human resources. And he said that education and job training are necessary to cultivate human capital.

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I felt the Korean human capital crisis about 25 years ago. At that time, I worked at a Japanese electronic company's production site, and when the company offered to promote me to the management position, I resigned and made a living by teaching labor law, public administration, and police administration in local cities. However, as time increased, only a small number of students passed the civil service exam, and the rest of the students wandered. They often encountered me in local cities. I was also wandering because I despised useless studies. Talents who would have been great if they had done something else were wasting time and talent on civil service exams. There was a time when Korea wasted a lot of national manpower due to the study of the Judicial Examination and the civil service examination. Of course, this is still the case.

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North Korea's neglect of human resource development due to its belief that education for its people hinders the regime's maintenance or because it is rich in iron ore, coal, and limestone, which are basic underground resources, will pose obstacles to reform. Even if North Korea begins to open its market, it will experience a shortage of technical manpower required for economic development or lack of people to operate its economic system.

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To be specific in this regard, it would be good for North Korea to import applied economic books from South Korea that use Hangul and teach them to economic officials. And by raising the status of economic bureaucrats, it will be necessary to treat them as much as the generals of the military. In addition, a vocational school should be established in Wonsan to significantly cultivate basic IT technology, electricity, welding, and construction equipment manpower. Rather, these attempts will help maintain the system. One day, there will be a moment when a special economic zone will be established to test the market economy, and the most suitable area will be Wonsan. It is believed that all conditions, such as port facilities, conditions for exchange with neighboring countries, climate, and President Kim Jong-un's access to the site, are met. And it will be an inevitable future with no choice.

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북한의 인적자원양성 / 베커

1992년 노벨경제학상을 받은 경제학자 베커(Gery Stanry Becker)는 인적자본이론을 내세우며 자원이 없는 국가는 인적자원을 이용하여 경제발전을 하여야 한다고 말하였다. 그리고 인적자본을 양성하기 위해서는 교육과 직무훈련이 필요하다고 말하였다. 

내 자신이 한국 인적자본의 위기를 느낀 것은 25년 전 쯤이었다.  당시 일본계 전자회사의 생산현장에서 일하다가 관리직으로 승진시켜준다는 제의에 사표를 내고 지방도시에서 노동법이나 공무원 행정학, 경찰학등을 강의를 하면서 생계를 유지해 나갔다. 그러나 시간이 쌓이자 극히 소규모 수강생만 공무원 시험에 합격하고 나머지 수강생들은 방황을 하면서 지방도시에서 나와 마주치기 일쑤였다. 무익한 글공부를 경멸하던 때라서 나도 방황스러웠다.  다른 일을 했으면 훌륭했을 인재들이 공무원 시험에 시간과 재능을 낭비하고 있었다. 한국은 고시공부와 공무원시험으로 국가적 인력낭비가 심했던 시절이 있었다. 물론 아직까지 그렇다. 

북한은 인민들에 대한 교육이 체제유지에 방해가 된다고 생각하거나 기본적 지하자원인 철광석, 석탄, 석회석이 풍부한 이유로 인적자원개발을 소홀히 한 점이 개혁에 장애물이 될 것이다. 만약 북한이 시장개방을 시작한다고 해도 경제시스템을 운영할 인재가 없거나 경제개발에 필요한 기술인력의 부족을 경험할 것이다. 

이 점에서 구체적으로 조언하자면 북한은 한글을 사용하는 한국의 응용 경제학서적을 수입하여 경제관료들에게 학습시키는 것이 좋을 것이다. 그리고 경제관료의 위상을 높여서 군장성들에 못지 않은 대우를 해야 될 것이다. 그리고 원산에 직업전문학교를 설립하여 기본 IT기술,  전기, 용접, 건설장비인력을 대폭 양성해야 한다. 이러한 시도는 오히려 체제유지에 도움이 될 것이다. 언젠가는 경제특구를 마련하여 시장경제를 시험할 순간이 올 것인데, 가장 적합한 지역은 원산이 될 것이다. 항만 시설, 인접국가와의 교류조건, 기후, 김정은 위원장의 현장접근성등 모든 조건이 일치하는 곳으로 생각된다. 그리고 선택의 여지가 없는 필연적인 미래일 것이다.   

     

Interest rates and ruin / Keynes

It is said that Turkiye has reached the threshold of national bankruptcy. In 2018, when Turkiye's private debt was so high that the value of the Turkish currency declined and inflation occurred, President Erdogan ordered interest rates to be lowered. The logic was that interest was a sin in Islamic countries. In inflation, it is basic to protect the value of the country's currency by raising interest rates, but Erdogan went the other way. Because of religion, Turkey was also on the verge of collapse.

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When it comes to interest rates, we have to talk about Japan. The Japanese government attempted to attract investment by lowering interest rates when Japan's exports became difficult due to the Plaza Agreement. However, the stupid Japanese borrowed money and invested in real estate. The healthy economy, including manufacturing, collapsed, only real estate boomed, and Japan is about to collapse. These days, China is difficult, and Japan is difficult, so the desire for a smooth war seems to be rising between the two countries.

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There is nothing like war to stimulate the economy at zero base. Politicians don't think about the tragedy of war.

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Keynes, an economist who aspires to be a big government, says, "When the government releases money to overcome the recession, people put their money in the closet or invest in securities or bonds of companies that are incapable of overcoming the recession, resulting in ineffective situations." Such a situation is called a liquidity trap. For this reason, aggregate demand policy, in which the public directly consumes large amounts of money, is said to be more advantageous in overcoming the recession.

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A politician with a religious mind or a politician who fails to grasp reality coldly runs on the path of destruction with the stupid people who follow them.

금리와 망국 / 케인즈

튀르키예가 국가부도의 문턱까지 왔다고 한다. 2018년 튀르키예의 민간부채가 너무 많아서 튀르키예화폐의 가치가 떨어지고 인플레이션현상이 일어나자 에르도안 대통령은 금리를 낮추라고 지시했다. 이슬람국가에서는 이자가 죄악이라는 논리였다. 인플레이션때는 금리를 높여서 자국의 화폐가치를 지켜야 하는게 기본인데, 에르도안은 그 반대로 간 것이다. 그래서 종교때문에 터키도 멸망직전까지 온 것이다.   

금리하면 일본을 이야기 하지 않을 수가 없다. 프라자 합의로 일본의 수출이 어려워지자 일본정부는 금리를 낮추어 투자를 끌어내려고 하였다. 그러나 어리석은 일본인들은 돈을 대출받아 부동산에 투자했다. 제조업을 비롯한 건전경제는 망하고 부동산만 흥했다가 이제 거품이 꺼져서 일본이 망할 지경이다. 그런데 요즘 중국도 어렵고 일본도 어렵고 해서 두 나라가 스멀 스멀 전쟁의 욕망이 솟꾸치는 것 같다. 

 

제로 베이스에서 경기를 활성화 시키는 방법으로는 전쟁만한게 없다. 정치인은 전쟁의 비극 그런거 생각 안 한다. 

큰 정부를 지향하는 경제학자 케인즈는 불황을 타개하기 위해 정부가 돈을 풀었을때 국민들이 풀린 돈을 장롱에 넣거나 불황을 타개할 능력이 없는 기업의 증권이나 채권에 투자를 해서 효과가 없는 상황이 생긴다고 말한다. 그것을 유동성 함정이라고 한다.  때문에 국민이 직접 대규모 소비를 하는 총수요 정책이 불황 타개에 더 유리하다고 한다. 

종교적 마인드를 가진 정치인이나 현실을 냉정하게 파악하지 못하는 정치인은 그들을 따르는 어리석은 국민들과 함께 멸망의 길로 달려간다. 

 

Postwar restoration / Russia and North Korea

Russian President Putin has announced his intention to advance eastward in cooperation with North Korea. One of the mysterious things about modern Russia is that a country with a low income level has steadily waged a unification war. And they have consistently experienced disadvantages. Russia will never lose its belligerent attitude, nevertheless. Neither will North Korea in that regard. Both countries are geographically isolated. Russia has never worried about NATO's invasion. North Korea has never worried about South Korea's invasion. It is only afraid of permanent isolation.

 

President Putin and President Kim Jong-un may be using the politics and economy of South Korean President Park Chung-hee as role models. The Park Chung-hee administration had a significant impact on the world. President Putin even requested President Kim Jong-un to send North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front. At that time, President Putin would have convinced President Kim Jong-un to obtain the same effects as President Park Chung-hee's financial income and practical experience from sending him to Vietnam.

 

If the end of the war in Ukraine is confirmed, the world will again experience the expansion of the post-war economy that it did not want. NATO will provide Ukraine with financial support like the Marshall Plan, and Russia will cooperate with North Korea to restore the post-war period. The war is miserable, but economic growth that begins at the zero standard will be lively. The United States and Europe after the Second World War, Japan after the Korean War, and Korea after the Vietnam War were. It has become so common that it should be expressed by purifying it to human 'universal economic activity'.

 

As I mentioned several times last time, I wonder what the West should have done to accept Russia's liberal government without making a wary about it when the former Soviet Union collapsed. Of course, the same can be said of the present North. But things would not go in the ideal direction in an instant. It is highly likely that any country will lose its belligerence unless it is isolated.

 

The most extreme example of technology loss in Australia is the island of Tezmania, about 200 kilometers off the southeastern coast of Australia. During the Red Turban Age, when sea levels were low, the barren Bath Strait, which currently separates Tasmania and Australia, was also dry land. Therefore, the people who lived in Tasmania were only a part of the people who lived together in the wider Australian continent than they are now.

 

The Tasmanians and mainland Australia were cut off from each other about 10,000 years ago when seawater eventually entered the strait. This is due to the fact that there were no ships on either side that could cross the Bath Strait. Since then, more than 4,000 Tasmanian hunter-gatherers have lost contact with any human beings on Earth and have been living in a thorough isolation that can only be found in science fiction.

 

- [GUNS, GERMS, AND STEEL] BY JARED DIAMOND -

double interpretation

전후복구 / 러시아와 북한

러시아의 푸틴 대통령은 북한과 협력하여 동쪽으로 진출할 뜻을 밝혔다. 그동안 현대 러시아에 관해서 불가사의한 일 중의 하나는 소득 수준도 그다지 높지 않은 나라가 꾸준히 통일 전쟁을 일으킨 점이다. 그리고 꾸준히 불이익을 경험했다. 그럼에도 불구하고 러시아는 호전적인 태도를 잃지 않을 것이다. 그 점은 북한도 마찬가지다. 두 나라는 지리적 고립국이다. 러시아는 나토의 침략을 우려한 적이 없다. 북한은 한국의 침략을 우려한 적이 없다. 다만 영속적인 고립을 두려워 하는 것이다.

푸틴 대통령과 김정은 위원장은 한국의 박정희 정부의 정치와 경제를 롤모델로 삼고 있을 것이다. 그만큼 박정희 정부가 세계에 끼친 영향은 대단했다. 심지어 푸틴 대통령은 김정은 위원장에게 북한군을 우크라이나 전선에 파병해 줄 것을 요청하면서 박정희 대통령의 베트남 파병으로 인한 재정수입과 실전경험을 설득했을 것이다.

 

우크라이나 전쟁의 종전이 확정되면 세계는 또 다시 원하지 않았던 전후 경기확장을 경험하게 될 것이다. 나토는 우크라이나에 마샬계획과 같은 재정지원을 할 것이고 러시아는 북한과 협력하여 전후 복구를 할 것이다. 전쟁은 비참하지만 영기준에서 시작되는 경제성장은 생동감이 넘쳐날 것이다. 이차대전후의 미국과 유럽이 그랬고, 한국전쟁후의 일본이 그랬고, 베트남 전쟁후의 한국이 그랬다. 이제는 그런 모습을 인류의 ‘보편적인 경제활동’으로까지 순화시켜 표현해야할 정도로 일반적인 일이 되었다.

 

지난 번에도 몇 번 언급했지만 구소련이 붕괴되었을 때 서방측은 러시아의 자유주의 정부를 경계하지 말고 수용했으면 어땠을까 하는 생각이 든다. 물론 지금의 북한도 마찬가지다. 상황은 순식간에 이상적인 방향으로 흘러가지는 않을 것이다. 그러나 어떤 나라도 고립되지 않으면 호전성을 잃어버릴 가능성이 매우 높다.

 

오스트레일리아 일대에서 기술을 잃어버린 가장 극단적인 사례는 오스트레일리아 동남부 해안에서 200킬로미터가량 떨어진 테즈매니아 섬의 경우다. 해수면이 낮았던 홍적세 때에는 현재 현재 태즈메니아와 오스트레일리아 사이를 갈라놓고 있는 야트막한 배스 해협도 마른 땅이었다. 따라서 태즈메니아에 살던 사람들은 지금보다 더 넓었던 오스트레일리아대륙에 함께 살던 사람들의 일부에 불과했다.

 

그러다가 약 일만년전, 마침내 이 해협에 바닷물이 들어오면서 태즈메니아인들과 오스트레일리아 본토인들은 서로 단절되고 말았다. 어느 쪽에도 배스 해협을 건너갈 만한 배가 없었기 때문이다. 그때부터 태즈메니아의 수렵채집인 4000여 명은 지상의 어떤 인류와도 접촉이 끊어지고 공상 과학 소설에서나 찾아 볼 수 있는 철저한 고립속에서 살게 되었다.

 

- [GUNS, GERMS, AND STEEL] BY JARED DIAMOND -

 

A tale of two countries / the fall of a real estate state

While driving buses in various cities, I observed the lives of citizens. I was interested in geography (especially North Korean geography), so I sometimes maintained a living by teaching geography to students. Perhaps that's why while driving a bus, I was busy looking around the urban environment from a human geography perspective.

 

Bus driving is a necessary task in Korean society, but it is not treated well. In particular, driving neighborhood buses (town buses) was often treated with contempt. In most regions, I understood it as such, but there was an area that was truly disappointing. The experience of a new city near Seoul was very impressive, so I drove a bus once again to confirm it in six years.

  

The city's horizontal shape was orthogonal, so it stretched straight like a checkerboard, and the city was mostly made up of apartment complexes. Many local residents were impatient and despised the bus drivers, perhaps because of the assimilation of the monotonous and straight horizontal shape. On the other hand, a city had a complex and diverse environment because of the mixture of new towns and old cities. In some cities with a lot of old cities, bus drivers were recognized as 'needed neighbors', so I lived with affection in those cities. The affectionate city was Uijeongbu.

  

On the other hand, it is said that in order to maintain the comfort of a bed city, a law was enacted to reject occupations that produce fundamental added value, such as manufacturing, from the beginning. As a result, the residents' pride in the living environment was immense. Buses, on the other hand, seemed to be viewed as a means of threatening the comfort of the residents, not as a means of living for convenience. They even rejected bus drivers' use of toilets, citing that the end points of electric and gas buses were noisy and uncomfortable.

 

Residents in their 30s and 40s engaged in economic activities in Seoul and maintained the city's economic status when the new city was created. However, 20 years later, the time to retire from economic activity has come, and it seemed to me that the residents were clearly worried about a lot of worries and uncertainties about the future. Of course, a decline in real estate prices, which were the source of residents' pride, was also expected.

 

It is just Korea and Japan. In Korea and Japan, where Confucian culture and class society were strong, many people preferred economic activities through real estate investment rather than labor activities. I can't say it, but the act of making money by working was instinctively contemptuous. When Japan, which was blocked from exporting due to the Plaza Agreement, lowered interest rates to stimulate the domestic market, the people took out loans and instinctively invested in real estate. This phenomenon is true in both Korea and China. However, because China considers land as public property, the phenomenon only occurred in buildings, and the bad ending is different from that of Korea and Japan in the short term.

 

As everyone knows, Japanese and Korean politicians showed policy interests focused on the real estate sector for short-term governance goals, and the low fundamental value and accumulated national wealth like Ponzi scheme was going to explode like a bomb one day.

 

Korea should not follow Japan's path. And Korea can revive only when the ideology of respecting fair work is internalized to the people. In the past, the reason why the Park Chung-hee administration in Korea was so successful was the endless encouragement of work and technology. Now, the types and technologies of work have become very advanced, and although they have become more advanced, their basic properties will remain the same. There is only one reason why the bizarre government that was broken last time became bizarre. It ignored the substance and pursued illusions.